EDITORIAL: Omicron and 2022

Published 2:30 pm Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Will the omicron variant do for the first quarter of 2022 what delta did for the late summer and early fall of 2021?

The infectiousness of omicron, which outpaces delta, is certainly troubling. In just a couple weeks the new variant was responsible for a majority of symptomatic cases in some areas of the U.S.

But there are also multiple reasons to believe that we are better equipped, including in Baker County, to deal with this latest threat in a pandemic that is approaching its second anniversary. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown needs to consider these factors, which could render unnecessary any return to the severe restrictions, on schools, businesses and other parts of society, that prevailed earlier in the pandemic.

Most notably, many more people are protected by vaccines now than when the delta variant began to run rampant in July. And although vaccination isn’t as effective against omicron as against earlier variants, vaccines still provide significant protection from severe illness in vaccinated people who have breakthrough infections. The same seems to be the case for people who have been infected with a previous variant and have a level of immunity as a result.

When the delta variant began to spread rapidly in Baker County starting in late July, about 54% of residents 50 or older — who are vastly more likely to become severely ill or to die — had had at least one vaccine dose. Today, about 62% of those residents are vaccinated — and 38% of residents 65 and older, and 20% of those 50 to 64, have had a booster dose, which experts say strengthens the defense against omicron.

In addition, since July more than 1,000 infections have been tallied in Baker County. Those residents — and in particular those who were previously or subsequently vaccinated — also should be better protected than they were prior to being infected.

Health officials also say that although the data are limited, there is reason to believe that omicron in general causes less severe illness than delta. Although Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variants for a research group led by Harvard Medical School, noted that “I don’t think we can bet the farm on that.”

But even if infection rates rise rapidly in Oregon — a recent projection from Oregon Health & Science University predicts two to three times as many COVID-19 patients will be hospitalized due to omicron as during the peak of the delta surge — there are also promising new antiviral drugs that could help to thwart the worst effects of omicron. These, combined with proven treatments such as monoclonal antibody therapy, should give hospitals more effective tools to treat patients.

Concerns about omicron are understandable. But decisions about imposing restrictions on society should be based not on the number of infections, but on the severity. So far, Brown has emphasized, wisely, the value of vaccines, treatments and testing rather than reflexively issuing mandates.

— Jayson Jacoby,

Baker City Herald editor