Job openings fall, signaling economic shift
Published 9:00 am Wednesday, December 7, 2022
SALEM — The pandemic’s aftermath has been unusual in many ways, but one of the most remarkable has been what happened to the job market.
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The number of Oregon job vacancies has outnumbered the number of unemployed people for more than a year, an extraordinary situation that has left schools, hospitals, fast-food restaurants and nearly every other kind of organization scrambling to fill openings.
Now, there are signs that Oregon’s labor squeeze is finally beginning to ease.
The number of job openings in the state plunged by 11% in the summer, according to the most recent survey data from the Oregon Employment Department.
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That’s the biggest drop since the pandemic began, at a time of year when the number of job vacancies usually increases. And at the same time, the number of people seeking work has been creeping up. Job openings still outnumbered the unemployed, but by fewer than 8,000. And the gap may continue to shrink.
Oregon had more than 90,000 unemployed in October and a jobless rate of 4.1%. That’s low by historical standards, but well above the 3.5% unemployed the state recorded last spring.
Similar trends are playing out nationally.
Fewer job openings and rising unemployment aren’t good for workers, of course, but modest changes could still be a positive sign for the broader economic outlook. That’s because the worker shortage has been one factor pushing up inflation, raising labor costs and straining supply chains.
An ease to the labor crunch could be a sign that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and constrain prices are beginning to have some effect. It’s far too soon to know if these trends will continue or how painful the job losses might get.
In their most recent forecast, Oregon economists predicted the state will fall into a “mild” recession next summer, with unemployment rising to 5.4% in 2024.
One positive sign in their report: It appears most of the decline in job vacancies is because employers are hiring fewer workers who already have jobs.
“The decline in job openings so far this year, both nationally and here in Oregon, is coming from the poaching component and not the unemployed portion,” the state’s economists wrote. “This is encouraging that unemployed workers are still able to find jobs quickly, and that overall workforce churn may be slowing as well.”