A new national election forecast is putting Democrats’ 40-year dominance of the Oregon governor’s office in question.

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia moved the Nov. 8 race for Oregon governor from “Leaning Democratic” to “Toss-Up.”

“This is despite the state’s blue lean and the fact that Republicans have not won a gubernatorial race there since 1982,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the center’s managing editor.

The center said an unusual three-way race for governor was enough to wobble Democrats’ hold on the state’s top job last won by a Republican when Vic Atiyeh was elected to a second term 40 years ago.

The change in rating came at the end of a week that saw former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, who left the Democratic Party late last year to run as an unaffiliated candidate for governor, turn in twice the number of signatures needed to qualify for the November ballot.

Secretary of State Shemia Fagan has until Aug. 30 to verify a sample of the signatures in time to put Johnson on the ballot alongside Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan.

“The race sets up an unusual situation where the winner may not need to crack even 40%,” Kondik wrote.

Much of the election debate has centered around who Johnson would most hurt, Kotek or Drazan.

Adding to the uncertainty is a decision by leaders of the Independent Party of Oregon to forgo choosing one of the three to carry the party’s ballot identification as well.

“There will be no cross-nomination on this one,” Independent Party board member Andrew Kaza of Redmond said Thursday when asked about the governor’s race.

An Independent Party cross-nomination in a race was often sought by major party candidates as an indicator that the self-described “centrist” party of the state saw them as being the less partisan choice.

In 2022, the Independent Party has cross-nominated 52 candidates so far this year, including U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, and two Democratic candidates for open U.S. House seats: Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner in the 5th Congressional District and Rep. Andrea Salinas of Lake Oswego in the 6th District.

The Independent Party of Oregon has heavily favored Democrats in 2022, but Sen. Bill Kennemer, R-Oregon City, and Rep. Mark Owens, R-Vale, are among five Republicans to be cross-nominated by the party.

Kaza said Independent Party leaders are free to announce their personal preferences. But no one in the governor’s race will be able to have the party’s identification added to their ballot listing.

The Center for Politics believes there is enough electoral uncertainty to merit questioning Democrats’ historic win streak.

“Outgoing Gov. Kate Brown (D) is deeply unpopular, and there may be some desire for change in the Beaver State,” Kondik wrote. “Johnson, the independent, would still be the most surprising winner, and Kotek and Drazan both will be working to try to prevent their voters from flocking to her banner.”

Two other major national forecasters — the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight — have previously moved

the Oregon governor’s race from likely Democratic win

to the less certain leaning Democratic.